PLANO, Texas—The optimism of credit union CEOs has rebounded after a small dip in the third quarter of 2014, according to the latest Credit Union CEO Confidence Survey conducted by Catalyst Corporate FCU.
The Credit Union CEO Confidence Index now stands at 32.64, up from 31.29 in the third quarter of 2014. The fourth quarter mark is close to the 2014 annual average of 31.80—the highest annual average since 2007.
“The factors that caused CEO confidence to deteriorate during that time are fairly obvious,” said Steven Houle, vice president of Advisory Services at Catalyst Strategic Solutions. “That was the beginning of the Great Recession. All financial institutions – and most American consumers – were affected negatively.”
In fact, Catalyst Corporate’s confidence index first headed south in the fourth quarter of 2007, plunging from 39.27 to 23.80. The Index did not turn the corner and rise above 30 again until the first quarter of 2014. “Two things are notable,” said Houle. “First, that it took nearly a decade for CEO confidence to recover to pre-recession levels, and second, that this recovery aligns well with the economy overall.”
According to Catalyst, CEO confidence still has room for improvement.
The survey’s Present Situation Index increased from 31.57 in the third quarter to 33.54 in the final quarter of 2014, and the Expectation Index also improved, from 31.15 to 32.19. All other measures in the survey rose quarter-over-quarter as well, with the notable exception of “Credit unions’ financial condition in six months,” which declined by 2.34 points to 40.55, Catalyst said.
Catalyst is projecting that CEO confidence will decline in its markets where the oil and gas industry is feeling the effects of the downturn in the price of a barrel of oil.
Catalyst Corporate’s quarterly confidence survey – started a decade ago – was sent to 2,228 credit union CEOs across the nation in January 2015; 201 credit union professionals responded, for a response rate of 9%.
Using a scale ranging from negative (-100) to positive (+100), respondents registered their confidence levels in six key areas to create an overall index, as well as a snapshot of present-day feelings and future expectations.