CHICAGO—Despite the Fed signaling it will not be aggressive with rate cuts this year, new account originations across several credit products are still expected to grow in 2025, TransUnion reported, adding there is more room for growth if lenders are not overly conservative.
The company based its forecast on data from its Q4 2024 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR).
“Following multiple years of depressed origination growth, largely driven by stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and elevated home and vehicle prices, new auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans are expected to see gains in 2025,” TransUnion said. “A myriad of factors, not the least of which is lenders' continued caution in their underwriting strategies, will likely temper the overall rate of growth across these products.”
“The Federal Reserve has signaled that it will not rush into interest rate cuts, potentially keeping rates at a level that could give consumers pause,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “However, we still believe that many consumer credit products will have higher originations in 2025. This will range from modest growth in auto and unsecured personal loans to more significant increases in mortgage.”
A number of the signs of a more stable consumer credit environment that emerged in Q3 2024 have continued over the past quarter across the credit spectrum, TransUnion said.
Originations saw some measure of YoY growth in the most recent quarter for which data are available for auto, mortgage, and unsecured personal loans. In credit cards, originations saw a smaller YoY decline than in recent quarters. Delinquencies ticked down across some credit products, although others saw increases. Balances saw increases that were more in line with rates seen prior to 2020 than in the years since, the company said.
“In Q4 2024, we saw several signals inching towards a return to more typical patterns within the consumer credit market,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of research at TransUnion. “Originations ticked up across mortgage and auto and saw more significant growth in unsecured personal loans. In contrast, delinquencies presented more of a mixed bag, seeing increases in auto and mortgage, while at the same time decreasing for unsecured personal loans and credit cards. We will be looking for additional signs of improved performance in these markets moving forward.”
More signs of a return to equilibrium were present in the credit card market in Q4 2024, TransUnion said. Consumer-level 90+ days past due delinquencies ticked down by 3 basis points YoY to 2.56%, which marked the first annual decrease since 2020. Similarly, account-level delinquencies fell by 4 basis points YoY to 1.46%.
“This is likely in part due to the continuation of a more conservative origination strategy among lenders. Originations saw a 4.8% YoY decline in Q3 2024. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of declining new account volumes on an annual basis. Despite that, the slowdown in originations is decelerating, with the latest quarter seeing the smallest YoY decline since Q2 2023,” the company said.
Super prime was the only risk tier to see originations growth in Q3 2024, at 1.2% YoY. While originations have slowed, balances continued to grow to record highs, increasing 5.7% to $1.1 trillion. This growth was seen across risk tiers, though the pace of balance growth has returned closer to pre-2020 levels.
“Prior predictions had anticipated a moderation in delinquency rates in Q1 2025. The peak was pulled forward by the effect of recalibrated risk strategies and disproportionate originations in prime and above segments. At the same time, there are signs that consumer demand for credit cards may be increasing, as year-over-year originations declines are getting smaller, and some risk tiers, such as super prime, are increasing for the first time in several quarters,” said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion.
The positive trend in unsecured personal loans continued for another quarter. Originations for Q3 2024, the most recent quarter of data available, stood at 5.8 million – an increase of 15% year-over-year.
“This marked the third consecutive quarter of YoY growth and the first quarter of double-digit growth in two years (since Q2 2022). All risk tiers contributed to this expansion, especially the super prime and the below prime tiers, which grew around 17% compared to the prior year. This growth drove records, per Q4 2024 data, in the volume of outstanding loans, in total balances, and in the number of consumers with a balance,” TransUnion said.
Concurrently, average debt per borrower was lower year-over-year in Q4 2024, driven by the prime and below risk tiers. Finally, 60+ DPD borrower-level delinquencies fell year-over-year for Q4 2024 to 3.57% -- 33 basis points below the same quarter last year. The decline was due to risk mix shift as lower risk super prime borrowers continued to grow as a share of total loans, as well as from delinquencies among subprime borrowers which fell 136 basis points year-over-year, TransUnion said.