NEW YORK—Default rates continue to rise--but just barely.
Data through January 2015, released by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, continued to show a slight upward trend in default rates from lows seen last year.
The national composite increased for a sixth consecutive month, posting a default rate of 1.12% in January, up one basis point from December 2014 and up 11 basis points since its low in July 2014. The first mortgage default rate remained flat at 1.02% in January but is 14 basis points above the July 2014 low. The second mortgage default rate increased by five basis points to 0.64%. The auto loan default rate rebounded from last month, up one basis point to 1.03%. Only the bank card default rate decreased, down four basis points to 2.61%.
“Numerous indicators point to more confident consumers who are more willing to spend and spend with credit. Consumer credit data from the Federal Reserve confirm growth in credit outstanding through the end of 2014,” Experian stated in a release.
The results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations show consumers anticipate increased incomes and rising spending plans. The recent improvements in the economy have boosted consumer spending and confidence without any significant increase in consumer credit defaults, Experian said.
“This favorable pattern of stronger spending and stable default rates could be threatened by higher interest rates or a rebound in oil and gas prices. However, for the moment the economy is justifying consumers’ upbeat outlook,” the company stated.
Five major cities show some variation in regional patterns, the study found. “Los Angeles or Dallas usually exhibit the lowest default rates, Miami is the highest over the last few years. New York, Dallas, and Miami reported default rate increases in January,” Experian explained.
New York reported the largest increase for the second consecutive month, up five basis points, to 1.10%. Dallas also reported an increase for the fourth consecutive month, up two basis points to 1.10%. Miami reported a modest gain of one basis point to 1.35%. Los Angeles reported the largest rate decrease, down two basis points to 0.84%.