NEW YORK--U.S. auto lenders face a more complicated lending environment in 2026 as electric-vehicle growth stalls domestically, supply-chain risks persist, and automakers recalibrate production and investment strategies, according to a new GlobalData outlook on the global auto industry.
GlobalData said U.S. EV adoption has begun to plateau after early gains, driven largely by the expiration of federal tax credits rather than charging concerns or policy uncertainty. With incentives fading, demand has softened enough that General Motors has already announced plans to cut EV production heading into 2026. The slowdown contrasts with continued EV growth in China and Europe and could reshape loan mix, residual values, and inventory risk for U.S. lenders that had been preparing for faster electrification.
The report also flagged elevated supply-chain and geopolitical risk that could affect vehicle availability and pricing. GlobalData pointed to the blacklisting of semiconductor supplier Wingtech and its subsidiary Nexperia as a reminder of ongoing fragility in global auto supply chains. Any disruption in chip availability—particularly for safety and control systems—could ripple through production schedules, tightening new-vehicle supply and influencing loan demand, pricing, and used-vehicle values.
On the manufacturing side, automakers are increasingly shifting investment toward U.S. production as trade and tariff dynamics evolve. GlobalData highlighted major commitments from Toyota and Stellantis, the latter planning a $13 billion U.S. investment aimed at boosting domestic output by 50%. While increased U.S. production could stabilize supply over time, the report noted that abrupt investment shifts can also create volatility in specific models and regions—an added consideration for lenders managing geographic and portfolio concentration.
Taken together, GlobalData said the combination of slower U.S. EV adoption, ongoing supply-chain uncertainty, and changing production strategies suggests a more uneven auto-finance landscape ahead. For lenders, the firm said, the next phase will require closer monitoring of model-level demand, incentive structures, and residual value risk as the market adjusts to a post-subsidy EV environment.