SAN FRANCISCO–A new forecast is predicting that point-of-sale card fraud will decrease as card not present and new account fraud increases over the next few years.
The analysis, from Javelin Strategy & Research, also offers predictions on the type of credentials fraudsters will be seeking to steal, the type of businesses that are most at risk for a data breach, and the magnitude of identify fraud by 2018.
Javelin’s 2015 Data Breach Fraud Impact Report suggests that as the United States transitions to EMV, POS fraud will grow less lucrative.
“Higher-security cards will make counterfeiting substantially more difficult, if not impossible,” Javelin said. “Additionally, any encrypted or tokenized payment information will make data gained from compromised terminals useless for future POS transactions. Criminals will focus on other areas including card-not-present (CNP) fraud, vulnerable merchants that have been slow to transition to EMV terminals and businesses that store Social Security numbers that will be of significant value in committing new account and account takeover fraud.”
“The relationship between data breaches and identity fraud is intuitive — quick access to millions of credentials makes life easy for a fraudster,” said Al Pascual, director of fraud and security at Javelin. “For criminals looking to make a quick buck, buying breached credentials eliminates the need to directly harvest financial information through malware or social engineering before cashing in at a merchant or by withdrawing funds.”