NEW YORK—Stablecoins are on track to significantly disrupt traditional bank deposits and payment systems within the next two to three years, according to a new research report by AInvest.
The firm projects moderate growth in the stablecoin market—ranging between $250 million and $750 million over the next year—but warns that even this incremental rise could have outsized effects on the financial system. Despite U.S. banks stepping up preparations, the report notes continued skepticism about the usefulness of stablecoins in domestic payments, with cross-border transactions remaining their most viable application for now.
AInvest highlights that the recent signing of the GENIUS Act by President Trump marks a pivotal shift in digital asset regulation, providing an initial legal framework for the issuance and oversight of stablecoins. At the same time, the House has passed the CLARITY Act—legislation designed to clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC in cryptocurrency regulation—which is now pending in the Senate. Together, these legislative moves signal a transition from prolonged policy uncertainty to active infrastructure development in the digital asset space.
The report also points to the potential knock-on effects of stablecoin growth on traditional financial markets, particularly in boosting demand for short-term U.S. Treasury bills. AInvest’s global research and rates strategy team suggests that as new capital flows into stablecoins, more of it may be allocated to U.S. government debt, subtly reshaping the liquidity landscape.
Looking ahead, AInvest warns that the medium-term implications for banks could be profound. As stablecoins gain traction, traditional institutions may face rising competitive pressure, forcing them to adapt quickly to preserve their relevance. The firm concludes that with a regulatory framework now taking shape, the financial industry stands at an inflection point—one that demands both strategic foresight and agility.