By Ray Birch
SAN CARLOS, Calif.—A 1% shift. That’s all it would take.
If just 1% of sales moved from a premium credit card to a retailer-issued stablecoin, Amazon would save $1.5 billion annually in interchange fees, Apple $1 billion, Walmart $783 million. And for PayPal, which acts as the merchant of record for more than 36 million global businesses—an eye-watering $1.86 billion.
For credit unions that issue cards, those billions in merchant savings represent a substantial potential loss in interchange revenue—and a direct threat to their core business model, explained payments expert Richard Crone, principal of Crone Consulting LLC.
As CUToday.info reported, Walmart and Amazon are discussing issuing their own stablecoins, a move that could disrupt the traditional payments system. As CUToday.info also reported, the Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, which establishes clear guidelines for stablecoin issuers.
Retailer-issued stablecoins—merchant-branded, closed-loop, prepaid instruments—are nothing new in concept. Think gift cards, but turbocharged. What’s changed is the delivery system: AI-powered “agentic payments” that replace consumers at the point of checkout with digital agents making optimized payment decisions on their behalf.
And credit unions, by and large, aren’t ready, said Crone.
“I have not found a credit union yet that understands what agentic payments are,” Crone said.
The Rise Of The Retailer Stablecoin
Major retailers are looking to move away from high-cost payment rails like credit cards and into stablecoins—programmable, branded digital dollars redeemable only at their stores. The interchange savings are substantial and it’s locked-in customer loyalty.
But this isn't just about cost—it’s about control, Crone explained.
“By issuing their own stablecoin, retailers gain end-to-end authority over the payment experience. What’s more, they can plug their stablecoins into a broader, interoperable infrastructure—essentially recreating what Bank of America did when it spun BankAmericard into Visa, or what Sears achieved with Discover,” Crone said.
And unlike the failed MCX/CurrentC initiative, today’s retailers have new tools on their side: regulatory momentum (the GENIUS Act), embedded finance platforms, and—critically—agentic commerce, noted Crone.
Crone explained the future of retail payments is already unfolding—largely outside the credit union’s app, and therefore outside its influence.
“The big change is agentic payments,” Crone reiterated. “Instead of the consumer manually choosing how to pay, an AI agent embedded in Amazon’s Buy for Me, Google Shop with AI, or PayPal’s Agentic Toolkit is making that decision—often without any involvement from the credit union’s app or card.”
In this world, credit unions face a dangerous kind of obsolescence: not from lack of relevance, but from lack of visibility, Crone said.
"If you're not embedded in that agentic interface, you’re not even in the game,” Crone warned. “Your card never even gets considered.”
Crone argues that previous credit union payment initiatives—CU Wallet and Early Warning’s Paze among them—failed not because of concept, but sequencing.
“They tried to build interoperability before securing their own members’ attention in their mobile app,” he said.
Crone added that the playbook should have been: embed payments first and then move toward interoperability with retailers. Now, the same pattern threatens to repeat, just with higher stakes.
“This isn’t just about losing some swipe volume,” Crone noted. “This is about being cut out of the transaction altogether—by design.”
Credit unions need a stablecoin and agentic commerce strategy—now, insisted Crone.
According to Crone, that means:
- Embedding intelligent payments inside their own digital banking apps
- Evaluating agentic platforms like Visa Intelligent Commerce, Mastercard Agent Pay, and third-party tools from Amazon, PayPal, or Google
- Choosing the right partnership strategy, rather than defaulting to Visa or Mastercard
- Preparing for an interoperable future, where merchant-issued stablecoins may become broadly accepted payment networks
“If not, credit unions risk losing not only interchange revenue but also their member relationship at the moment it matters most—checkout,” Crone said.
Credit unions still have time to act, but the window is closing. Agentic payment platforms are already live. Stablecoin pilot programs could begin rolling out alongside the GENIUS Act’s passage.
“If you don’t have a plan in place before these platforms scale, you’ll be blindsided,” Crone said.
How To Evaluate An Agentic Payment Platform
Crone outlined how to build an agentic payments plan: Credit unions evaluating agentic payment platforms—such as Visa Intelligent Commerce, Mastercard Agent Pay, PayPal Agentic Toolkit, Google Shop with AI, and Skyfire—should begin with their own cardholder and merchant data.
“Review your member payment activity across in-store, ecommerce, card-on-file, and third-party wallets to identify where agentic platforms could displace credit union-issued cards,” explained Crone. “This information can be found by studying the payment activity in your institution’s own merchant identification reports.”
Next, estimate how much payment volume could be routed through platforms offering agentic checkout experiences—such as PayPal, Apple Pay, Amazon Buy for Me, or Google Shop with AI.
“This provides the baseline for calculating how much interchange and transaction visibility your institution could lose—or preserve—by embedding directly into these agentic ecosystems,” Crone said.
Beyond internal data, credit unions must conduct thorough due diligence on the platform fundamentals.
“Start by identifying the SDKs and APIs available for integration, and request live, side-by-side demos showing how your institution’s card performs in tender selection,” explained Crone. “Evaluate how often your card is selected by default, how routing and reward logic is applied, and what transaction visibility you maintain. Ask hard questions: What does Visa or Mastercard gain from your participation? Do you receive data parity? And most importantly—how do you retain your member relationship and brand identity inside an AI-driven interface you don’t control?”