SAN FRANCISCO— U.S. retailers are heading into the 2025 holiday season with tempered expectations, as multiple forecasts point to modest sales growth driven largely by higher prices rather than stronger consumer demand.
S&P Global Ratings published its report: U.S. Holiday 2025 Retail Sales Outlook: Retailers Wrapped In Caution, indicating it expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024.
This is the same growth rate as last year.
"We believe price increases to offset tariffs will account for most of the sales growth, with minimal unit volume gains," said credit analyst Bea Chiem. "We expect holiday retail spending by consumers will remain relatively flat, which illustrates the challenging operating conditions for retailers and supports our negative ratings bias in the sector."
Another major forecaster, the National Retail Federation, projects U.S. holiday spending to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November–December 2025—marking a 3.7 %-4.2 % increase from 2024’s $976 billion.
Meanwhile, retail-consulting firm Bain & Company also forecasts a 4 % year-over-year gain, setting expectations at just over $975 billion for the season.
Both forecasts align closely with S&P Global’s 4 % growth outlook—but they underline a shared caveat: the gains look to be driven by pricing rather than volume, underscoring broader concerns about consumer demand momentum and retailer margin pressure.