CHICAGO—TransUnion’s 2026 Consumer Credit Forecast projects credit card balances will rise 2.3% year over year—the slowest annual growth since 2013, excluding the pandemic-driven decline in 2020. The report indicates consumers remain cautious amid ongoing economic uncertainty, while lenders continue to apply tighter underwriting standards.
Balances are expected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2026, up from $1.16 trillion this year. The forecast marks a sharp slowdown from the double-digit increases recorded in 2022 and 2023, aligning instead with the more moderate growth patterns of recent periods. Lenders are gradually widening access for higher-risk borrowers but are emphasizing account management to limit delinquency exposure.
“After elevated credit card balance growth over the last five years, credit card balance growth is expected to moderate driven by both measured spend growth by consumers and prudent credit extension by lenders,” said Paul Siegfried, senior vice president and credit card business leader at TransUnion. “While economic pressures remain, this trend suggests households are managing credit more responsibly—a favorable sign as we move into 2026.”
Credit card delinquency rates are forecast to remain virtually flat, with the percentage of consumers 90 or more days past due inching up by just one basis point to 2.57%. This stability reflects tighter underwriting and proactive risk management by card issuers—even as consumers contend with inflationary pressures and fluctuating interest rates, TransUnion said.
The company stated its forecast reflects a complex backdrop: inflation remains above target at 2.45%, and unemployment is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% by late 2026, which could put strain on household budgets for certain borrowers. At the same time, multiple anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts over the next year should ease borrowing costs and provide some relief to consumers.
Delinquency Trends Across Other Credit Products
- Auto Loans: Accounts 60+ DPD are expected to reach 1.54% (+3 bps YoY), marking the fifth straight year of higher delinquencies—though each increase has become progressively smaller
- Mortgages: Accounts 60+ DPD are projected to hit 1.65% (+11 bps YoY) in December 2026, influenced by a modest rise in unemployment
- Unsecured Personal Loans: Consumers 60+ DPD are forecast at 3.75% (+1 bps YoY), driven partly by macroeconomic pressures and increased non-prime originations
“Delinquency rates across most credit products are expected to see slight increases, which is not surprising given the unsettled economic environment,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “The growth in serious delinquency rates remains measured, and consumers appear to be managing their finances reasonably well. We’ll continue to monitor these trends closely to determine whether this signals a broader improvement in consumer credit health.”
“The smallest year-over-year growth in credit card balances in more than a decade, combined with stable delinquency rates, underscores the relative strength and resilience of consumer credit behavior—even amid broader economic uncertainty,” said Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services at TransUnion. “For lenders, these trends present an opportunity to build deeper relationships with responsible borrowers while continuing to prioritize prudent risk management.”
TransUnion noted that its forecasts are based on various economic assumptions, such as expected consumer spending, disposable personal income, home prices, inflation, interest rates, real GDP growth rates and unemployment rates, among other metrics. The forecasts could change, the company noted, if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy. Better-than-expected improvements in the economy, such as increases in GDP and disposable income, could also impact the forecasts.