NEW YORK--U.S. light-vehicle sales softened at the end of 2025, signaling a more uneven environment for auto lenders heading into 2026, according to preliminary estimates from GlobalData.
December sales fell 2.5% year over year to 1.47 million units, and declined 6.2% on a selling-day-adjusted basis, even as the annualized selling rate ticked up to 16.1 million units. Retail sales slipped 2.8% year over year, while fleet volumes fell 0.8%, pointing to cooling demand after a strong first nine months of the year.
For lenders, the late-year slowdown followed a pull-forward effect earlier in 2025, when buyers accelerated purchases ahead of higher prices, tariffs, and the expiration of EV tax credits. GlobalData said total U.S. sales reached 16.3 million units for the year—the strongest result since 2019—but volumes fell 4.3% year over year in the fourth quarter as incentives faded and affordability pressures mounted. The firm expects some of those demand tailwinds to unwind in 2026, raising risks around loan growth and portfolio performance.
Sales trends also shifted by segment and powertrain in ways that matter for credit risk and residual values. Pickups surged in December, helped by year-end tax write-offs, discounting, and limited exposure to EVs, with large pickups capturing their highest December market share since 2022. Compact and midsize non-premium SUVs remained the largest segments for the year, while cars continued to lose share. GlobalData noted that automakers with heavier EV exposure tended to post year-over-year declines, while those focused on internal-combustion and hybrid models performed better—suggesting a more traditional sales mix that could favor higher-ticket vehicles and longer loan terms.
Looking ahead, GlobalData forecasts U.S. light-vehicle sales will slip slightly in 2026 to about 16.2 million units, down 0.7% year over year, as EV demand remains pressured early in the year and automakers begin passing along tariff-related costs. For auto lenders, the firm said the outlook points to tighter underwriting conditions, closer monitoring of pricing and incentives, and increased attention to model-level demand as higher prices and fewer subsidies test consumer affordability.