PLANO, Texas—As Thanksgiving arrives, U.S. households are paying a little more for their holiday dinner, thanks to stubborn inflation.
This year’s Meridian Economics' Thanksgiving Index breaks down just where those dollars are going and why, noting some prices have actually come down from last year.
“A traditional Thanksgiving dinner menu will require us to open our wallets a little wider this holiday season,” said Brian Turner, president and chief economist of Meridian Economics. “Surprisingly, thanks to shifts between cheaper/more expensive items, the average unit price tag for the Meridian Economics' Thanksgiving Index actually declined to $52.34 from last year's $56.51, a decrease of $(4.18), or about -7%.”
However, the total cost of Thanksgiving, which includes the cost of all 15 elements (see table below) of a very modest dinner, increased to $103.87 from last year's total of $101.22, about $2.65 over 2023, or +2.6%, Turner said.
“And that doesn't even guarantee adequate leftovers for watching that third football game for the day,” he said.
All but five elements experienced year-over-year unit and cost decreases over the previous year. The biggest increase was related to the turkey itself, Turner said.
According to October's inflation report, food prices have increased by 2.1% over the past twelve months. Grocery prices have increased less than food bought at restaurants.
“This reverses 2023 results that proved cheaper to order most of your Thanksgiving dinner from your favorite BBQ or smokehouse—particularly saving that 20% tip,” Turner noted. “Of course, venturing out to Grandma's house might be less costly, as well, as average gasoline prices have dropped about 12.2% from a year ago. Although average airline ticket prices are up about 4.4%.”
Annualized consumer prices rose 2.6% for the twelve months ending on Oct. 31. But core inflation remains 3.3% higher, Turner said.
“And fortunately, median wages in the U.S. rose by 3.9%,” Turner said. “So purchasing power—at least for some things—has improved. However, the immediate future might not be as prosperous as we'd like. Remember, over the past two years, consumer prices have increased more than 25%.”