One Man's Presidential Election Forecast (And Other Fun Stuff)

PORTLAND, Ore.–Nearly everyone is attempting to find some indicator, however obscure, of how the 2016 presidential election will finally shake out. One expert is offering credit unions his own prediction on who will left standing, drawing on both sophisticated analysis of voting patterns, as well as more arcane measuring sticks, such as the locations of Cracker Barrels and Whole Foods.

David Wasserman, editor of the respected Cook Political Report, offered a fast-paced analysis of the crowded 2016 electoral map in remarks to the Northwest Credit Union Association’s Amplify meeting here.

Changing demographics, voting patterns, and micro and macro trends have all become interwoven and finding clear signs of what the future might hold is more difficult than ever, noted Wasserman.

For instance, while the GOP now have the upper hand in Congress and may win the presidency, they also have a “big problem,” according to Wasserman: 89% of Republicans in Congress are white men, but the percentage of white men who vote in elections is now just 33%. “So Republicans have a lot of work to do.”

What strikes Wassermann about the current race for the Republican nomination is that 51% of voters have shown support for candidates with zero elected experience: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, and Carly Fiorina.

“This is unprecedented in presidential nominating races. A lot of people ask, “Well how could these people have the gall to run for president without ever having run for anything before?,” said Wasserman. “But if these people tried to get elected in states that are as blue as these are (New York, Maryland, California, respectively), they could not get elected. So they are bypassing this stage. But I think as we get closer to the caucuses there is going to be less of a premium on entertainment value and more of a premium on electability.”

Charlie Cook, who founded the Report named after him, had once theorized that if a person lived close to a Starbucks, they likely voted Democratic, and if they lived closer to a Walmart, they were more likely to vote Republican. Wasserman has updated that analysis, saying its now about Whole Foods and Cracker Barrel, respectively.

Three Long-Term Trends

Beyond food and dining preferences, Wasserman said there are three long-term trends to understand what is happening in politics in America: 

1. Culture and lifestyle have come to trump policy when it comes to voting patterns. Democrats won just 34% of working class voters in 2014, and higher education has become the great polarizer: In 2012, Barrack Obama won 74%  of the top most educated counties, and 18% of the least educated.
2. The self-sorting of the electorate. “More people choosing to live near people who share their political values. We are now seeing more ‘landslide’ counties. It’s not just Fox News or MSNBC; our demographic patterns are doing it. We’ve seen a rapid urbanization of Democratic voters.” Wasserman said that if just three counties–Broward County, Fla.,  Cuyahoga County, Ohio, and Philadelphia County, Penn., had gone the other way, Obama would have lost the last election. “It’s gotten easier than ever for politicians to draw safe maps and to choose their voters. Nationally, democrats are at a major disadvantage in the House, and in state legislatures, and due to this clustering. Democrats need to win 6.8% more votes just to hang on to their seats.
3. The incredible shrinking swing seat. “All the action has moved to the primaries. In 2014, just 14.6% of voters turned out in primaries. As a result, the 113^th Congress set a record low for laws passed.”

All of that has contributed to a polarized Congress and legislatures and in turn has led more Americans than ever to tune out elections; some 43% now call themselves “independents.”

“Midterms are all about the base, and Democrats stayed home in 2014,” said Wasserman. “The turnout of whites as voters went up. We have two different electorates: midterms, which are whiter  and older and more favorable to Republicans, and national elections, which are younger and more diverse and better for Democrats.” more diverse younger, better for Democrats.”

And Now, The 'Fun Stuff'

But what about what Wasserman called “the fun stuff,” the upcoming president election?
If there is one lesson from the summers the year prior to election years, Wasserman said it’s this: “Don’t fixate on the bright and shiny object of the moment. The summer before the primaries is a terrible time to have the lead, because it doesn’t seem to last into the election. On the Democratic side it’s been Bernie Sanders. I think he is going to have a nice career capstone, rather than winning the nomination for two reasons: he’ll be 74 at time of inauguration, but a bigger problem for him is that among non-whites, Hillary Clinton is killing Bernie Sanders.”

In the crowded GOP race, Wasserman told credit unions not to pay so much attention to the fact Donald Trump is first in polls with 26%, and instead note that 74% are NOT for him.

“Previous leaders at this point have been Joe Lieberman, Rudy Giuliani, and Rick Perry. I think he’s winning support from people who like watching The Apprentice.  I think his support in polls is inflated, and that Ben Carson and Carly Fiorini are taking some of that shine off.”

What had once been envisioned as another Bush vs. Clinton race for the presidency is now part of a bigger trend, said Wasserman, which is Stay the Course (Bush and Clinton) vs. Time for Change.

There are three “warning signs” for Hillary Clinton, said Wasserman:

1. How to frame her message: Stay the course or go back to the 1990s?

2. The email scandal that won’t go away.

3. Swing voters increasingly view her as a politician first, and as a diplomat/woman second. “Among independents, 52% view Clinton unfavorably. She is hemorrhaging independents.”

The Political Bracket

Wasserman, who believes Joe Biden should avoid entering the race, has broken the GOP field into four brackets, ala NCAA basketball tournament style: 

1. Anti-Politician Bracket: “I would wager that Carly Fiorina will emerge here.”
2. Old Guard Bracket. “The leader here is Jeb Bush, but this is a Republican base that wants change, and I think there is a limit to how far these candidates can go.”
3. The New Guard. “I think the current leader is Marco Rubio. Rubio has a lot of potential. He appeals to a lot of brackets in the Republican party. He’s catching on with Republicans who want someone who can win and who can build a contrast to Hillary Clinton.”
4. Tea Party Senators. “Rand Paul has no mojo; Ted Cruz is the Tea Party Senator who could make the strongest play.”

The rest of the GOP candidates were described by Wasserman as the “NIT bracket. They each see a president in the mirror, which is a bit delusional.”

“It’s not about who is ahead right now, it’s about who has the most room to grow. Who has the broadest appeal?,” said Wasserman. “Seventy percent of those polled said they  now say they could see themselves supporting Ben Carson, but I would wait until he gets more scrutiny. Sixty-three percent say that about Rubio.  The bottom line is I think there are only four plausible nominations for GOP: Jeb, Marco, Carly and Cruz. I think we are now at the stage where Marco Rubio is becoming the tacit candidate for nomination.”

Wasserman told CUs to watch three things:

• March 15, 2016, the day Florida awards all of its Electoral College delegates
• Pennsylvania, which could become the “keystone” in the Electoral College.
• Vigo County, Indiana. Of the 3,141 counties in the U.S., it has voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1956.