WASHINGTON–Why has the country become so divided politically? Will Donald Trump run for the presidency again? What will happen in the 2022 elections? And how can credit unions protect their tax exemption? CU leaders gathered here for NAFCU’s Congressional Caucus were offered thoughts on those questions and more by one political expert.
Speaking to Caucus as part of a Q&A with NAFCU President Dan Berger was James Carville, the Democratic political leader who has been involved in dozens of political races and who is perhaps best known for his role in helping Bill Clinton win the presidency in 1992.
Below is a look at how Carville responded to numerous politics-related questions and more:
Berger: When I look at what’s going on in state capitols and D.C., it seems more divided than ever before. Is that correct?
Carville: The problem is that I don’t know that a majority of people want it to get any better. George Carlin has this riff that politicians come from us and maybe the public sucks. That’s not a very good campaign slogan. This whole vaccine thing is fundamentally absurd. It’s a vaccine. It has nothing to do with politics. It’s disheartening. The Democrats, to be perfectly honest, if they don’t pull something out and get something passed with their thin majority, then… If you ask people if the country is on the right or wrong track, or if you ask me, I say it’s on the wrong track. It’s bad.
Berger: People say the divide has something to do with redistricting. Districts used to vote 52-48, but not anymore. Is that due to gerrymandering?
Carville: Let me give you a sobering statistic. Of 3,100-plus U.S. counties, in 2000 there were 96 supermajority counties in the U.S. That means the victor won the county by a 75-25 margin or more. In 2020, there were 1,300 super-majority counties.
Education is becoming as big a predictor of voting behavior as race is. Not quite, but it’s a huge predictor. If you look at some congressional districts, in Louisiana, they tried to get every Black person in Louisiana in one district. A lot of things contribute to it. Another thing is the diffusion of news sources. They don’t read the news to find out what’s going on; they read the news to find out why they were right. Rachel Madow or Sean Hannity will tell you why what you thought is correct. You build up this situation where everyone you know has the same views as you do. You don’t know anyone who disagrees with you.
This used to be a Washington phenomenon. Now it’s everywhere. No one wants to be a nurse, a policeman, a teacher, three of the most valuable professions in this country, and people are walking away.
Berger: What is the future of the Democratic party. There is the OAC and the Squad. There is Sen. Joe Mancin from West Virginia and everything in between. The Democratic party seems more divided than it has been in a while.
James Carville during NAFCU Congressional Caucus.
Carville: I am a liberal Democrat, but I’m not a leftist. Every time you see a leftist run against a liberal, the liberal wins. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have all the money in the world, have had every opportunity to articulate their viewpoints, but they lost bad (for Democratic nomination for president). There is a leftist part of the Democratic party. There is a liberal to moderate part of the Democratic party that is significantly larger than the leftist part. Now, if I cross the aisle, there are way more nuts on that side than the nuts on our side.
Berger: There are extreme views on both sides. When the media gives coverage to most conservative wing and the most liberal wing, does that galvanize the middle?
Carville: Most of the media are coastal and educated, so it’s no surprise that they are liberal. They give this left wing movement way more attention than it gives deserves. This absurd focus on language has gotten ridiculous.
Berger: You noted all politics are local and coined the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid.” What are the three issues Democrats need to focus on?
Carville: The first issue is wages. Hopefully, if we keep this recovery going and get this economy under control, there’s a lot of slack left in this economy. I would clearly talk about the expansion of health care. People like that. It’s popular. How do you deal with inequality? The best way is to get people’s incomes to rise. Climate change. It’s here. We’re not talking about 2050. It's here in 2021. In the Green New Deal, there is nothing about nuclear. Nuclear doesn’t put out a gram of carbon.
Berger: 2022 is coming up; it’s a big election cycle. The president’s numbers are down. Can he get anything through the House and Senate?
Carville: Right now, I would predict the Republicans win the House. That’s right now. But I could see things going better. (The Democrats) need to get some legislative accomplishments under their belt. If they don’t get the $3.5 trillion, then so what, get $2 trillion. Show people you can do something.
The Afghanistan stuff, of everything that Biden did, it is the one thing I most agree with. I served in the Marine Corps in the Vietnam war. I was stateside. We lost the war. Period. That’s what happened in Afghanistan. There is no elegant way to lose a war. The Afghanistan war was lost a long time ago. You go back and read this new book and everything we did in Vietnam we did in Afghanistan and then we just lied left and right about it.
I went to Afghanistan. You could see in 2011 that this isn’t going to work. Of course, it didn’t work! We kept saying we just need a little bit more (money and time). Biden, when he was vice president, (everyone) made fun of him when he said we need to get out. It hurt his feelings. I know that for a fact. But as president he said I’m just getting out.
Berger: What about the Senate?
Carville: The Senate is a little more promising for Democrats because we have a little less exposure. Florida, North Carolina, even Wisconsin and Ohio, and Georgia (are all important). I would say the odds, right now, that the Democrats retain the Senate are higher. But the way they draw these congressional districts….
The number-one piece of intelligence to have (in politics) is to know whether the candidate is more worried about losing a primary or a general election. Most are afraid of losing a primary, and that is the root of this evil. Liz Cheney (R-WY) knows she won’t lose the general election, but she is worried about losing the primary.
Berger: Coming back to 2022, we see the rabble-rousers in both parties who seem to suck the energy out of a room and get the media coverage. Are there any rising stars who are good public servants?
Carville: In the Democratic party, there is a lot. The average age of our congressional leadership is 102. There is a lot of talent out there, but we have to find a way to get it front and center. That is always going to be an issue. I think the left has cost (Democrats) 15 House seats, and now they’re complaining because we’re trying to work with a four-seat majority in the House, and in the Senate the vice president has to break ties.
Berger: Will Trump run again?
Carville: He just can’t stop. It’s how he raises money. If he doesn’t run he will wait until the very last minute to say it. It’s this giant thing where people keep sending him checks. No one will even challenge him. His hold (on Republicans) is unlike anything since Franklin Roosevelt and the Democratic party.
NAFCU CEO Dan Berger during Congressional Caucus.
Berger: You have been outspoken critic on occasion. What are your thoughts on Biden?
Carville: I think he made the right call on Afghanistan, I think he made the correct call on vaccines, although why did it take so long? One of the reasons people voted for him is he has experience and gets things done, so he needs to put some victories up. To be fair to President Biden, it takes a while to make this sausage. But he’s going to need some W’s.
Berger: Joe Mancin is kind of the Democrats’ John McCain and goes his own route on occasion. Do you think that is correct and is that kind of independence good for the process?
Carville: First, let’s do a little intel. A Democrat has not carried a county in West Virginia since 2008. So, what is Sen. Mancin worried about? He’s not worried about the primary. If he switched to being Republican, he could run unopposed. But he is a product of reality. In politics, the best political movie I ever saw, by far, was Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln movie. It was all about what it took to pass the 13th amendment, to ban slavery. They had to literally bribe people. It’s a tough process. So, running as a Democrat in West Virginia a lot different than in the Bronx.
Berger: In politics, there is always one defining moment. What is going to be the issue that drives the election in 2022?
Berger: The defining issue is going to be getting COVID somewhat in the rearview mirror. It’s crippling people’s attitudes, hurting the economy. People who know the economy well tell me there is a lot of pent-up demand out there. We had this period through July 4 where people were out cranking it up. That is the number-one thing by far.
We have no idea what the aftermath of this pandemic is, what the long-term implications are, but I do think, and the evidence supports this, if the virus gets under control it will help a lot. This whole thing is going to be about getting incomes up.
Berger: What is the future of Afghanistan?
Carville: The way it works there is, I’m a warlord. You want to transport something, so you pay me. That is a huge source of revenue. They can now make the heroin right there in the country. The profits are enormous. The Taliban is going to fail. These warlords will still extract cash. They will still manufacture heroin. I’d love to be wrong, but I’m not very optimistic.
Audience Member: How can credit unions protect their tax exemption?
Carville: The most important part of your advocacy campaign has got to be your members. That’s who (Congress) needs to hear from. In my experience, people are very intense about how they feel about their credit union.