SAN JOSE, Calif. —What’s ahead for the holiday buying season, which ramps up this week?
According to Adobe Analytics, another year of record online sales.
Adobe has released its online shopping forecast for the 2024 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2024.
Adobe said it expects U.S. online sales to hit $240.8 billion this holiday shopping season, representing 8.4% growth year-over-year. In the 2023 season, shoppers spent $221.8 billion online at 4.9% growth YoY. Shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% YoY. This would represent a 53.2% share of online spend this season (versus desktop shopping).
Cyber Week (the five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $40.6 billion in online spend, up 7.0% YoY and representing 16.9% of the overall holiday season, Adobe said.
Adobe said it expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $13.2 billion in spend, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday ($10.8 billion, up 9.9% YoY) and Thanksgiving Day ($6.1 billion, up 8.7% YoY) are both expected to outpace Cyber Monday in growth YoY, as consumers embrace earlier deals promoted by U.S. retailers.
In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 71% say they plan to shop online on Black Friday, with 70% saying they proactively check for deals during Cyber Week, Adobe said.
“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to manage their budgets in different ways,” says Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights. “These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading up to goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers.”
Price Sensitive Shoppers Enticed by Strong Discounts
Adobe said it anticipates major discounts this season–up to 30% off listed prices–as retailers compete for consumer dollars. These levels are on par with the 2023 season. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 30% off listed price (vs. 31% in 2023) while discounts for toys are set to hit 27% (vs. 28%). Record high discounts are expected for TVs at 24% (vs. 23%) and sporting goods at 20% (vs. 18%). Other categories with notable discounts include apparel at 23% (vs. 24%), computers at 23% (vs. 24%), furniture at 19% (vs. 21%) and appliances at 18% (vs. 18%).
Shoppers ‘Trading Up’
“Prior to the holiday season, months of persistent inflation had led shoppers to embrace cheaper goods across major e-commerce categories. To conduct this analysis for each category tracked by Adobe, prices were separated into four quartiles from the highest to lowest prices. Shares of units sold in the most expensive and least expensive quartiles were then tracked from April 2019 to August 2024. Adobe found the share of the cheapest goods increased significantly, up 46% across categories. Conversely, share of the most expensive goods decreased by 47% in the same period,” Adobe said.
Adobe added the trend is expected to reverse for the upcoming holiday season, where share of the most expensive goods is set to increase by 19% compared to pre-season trends—driven in large part by competitive discounts.