ATLANTA--Rising gasoline prices may help put a floor under falling EV values, but credit union auto lenders should not assume the latest fuel-price spike will trigger a broad consumer rush back into electric vehicles, according to Kevin Tynan, director of research at The Presidio Group.
Tynan said the dominant force in EV pricing remains “supply and demand,” not gasoline prices alone. With automakers “relieved of the regulatory—and thus financial—pressure of manufacturing EVs,” he said, manufacturers have reduced EV capacity and output.
“The value of scarcity will firm up pricing while volume finds its new unsubsidized level,” Tynan said.
That matters for credit union lenders because EV collateral values have been under pressure as federal policy shifted, incentives disappeared and consumer demand weakened. Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book reported EV sales fell 27% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, to 216,399 units, though the decline appeared to be stabilizing, with EVs holding at 5.8% of new-vehicle sales.
At the same time, gasoline prices have moved sharply higher. AAA listed the national average for regular gasoline at $4.176 on April 28, while Reuters reported pump prices were near a four-year high amid Iran-war disruptions and U.S. refinery outages.
Tynan said higher gas prices can “motivate consumer demand to a small degree” and worsen an undersupplied EV market, which would push prices higher. But he cautioned the industry should not simply assume “higher fuel prices equals a surge in EV sales,” especially if consumers view the price spike as temporary.
“At this point, the perception that elevated gasoline prices are temporary and will have a clear end is more likely to delay new vehicle purchase timing than to change the behavior or drivetrain preference,” Tynan said.
Kevin Tynan
Used-EV values may stabilize less because borrowers suddenly want EVs and more because the supply side is tightening. Cox reported overall wholesale used-vehicle values were up 6.2% year over year in March and at their highest level since summer 2023, although mid-April values slipped 1.1% from March.
Analysts suggested that creates a more complicated underwriting picture. EV residual values may firm, but demand remains fragile, incentives are shifting, and member payment sensitivity remains high. For lenders, the bigger near-term risk is not missing an EV rebound, but overestimating how durable that rebound will be if gasoline prices retreat.